Courtesy of The Hardball Times and RLYW, listed below are projected results of the 2009 season (based on rosters as of January 8, 2009). All of the normal disclaimers apply: the games are played on the field, not on a computer; these projections don't account for significant injuries that might occur; players could be traded or signed, etc.
Anyway, here are the 2009 MLB projections, based on 100 statistical simulations conducted by The Hardball Times (double-click the chart to enlarge).
THT projects the Cards to finish second in the NL Central with approximately 84 wins. THT further projects that it's going to take 88-89 wins to make the playoffs in the National League.
A lot is going to have to go right for the Cards to manage 90 wins in 2009. Last year's team should probably be considered an "over achiever," and yet that team managed just 86 wins. Of course the tragically comic bullpen was basically the only thing standing between the Cardinals and another trip to the playoffs.
But can the 2009 squad find a way to get to 90? Perhaps. From where I sit, however, the Redbirds are going to need to add at least one more capable starting pitcher. And I highly doubt that Miller and Ring are the answers to the LOOGY situation.
So as Mozeliak continues to scour the offseason market for clearance items, let's hope he stumbles upon a bargain gem (or two).
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In case you missed it last week, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has posted his Top 11 Cardinal prospects:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, CF
2. Brett Wallace, 3B
Four-Star Prospects
3. Chris Perez, RHP
4. Daryl Jones, LF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Jess Todd, RHP
6. Adam Reifer, RHP
7. Bryan Anderson, C
8. Jaime Garcia, RHP
9. Lance Lynn, RHP
10. Jason Motte, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Niko Vasquez, SS
Just Missed: Mitch Boggs, RHP; Jon Jay, OF; Peter Kozma, SS
Ranking Challenges: Spots one through four are almost too easy, but it's a bit messy from there down. Reifer slots higher than expected based on a pair of crazy reviews from scouts, while a guy like Motte could land anywhere from fifth to completely off of the list depending on who you're talking to.
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