For Day #3 of the UCB Roundtable, I posed the following question to my fellow Cardinal bloggers:
Will the 2009 season be the last season in St. Louis for LaRussa and Duncan? If you think so, who would you guess to be the most likely candidate(s) to replace TLR?Here is the transcript of responses:
Bryan (Rockin’ the Red): I think the future of Tony's tenure with the Cardinals depends a lot on what they do this off-season and next year. I don't think Tony will tolerate many more seasons of .500 ball, and neither will the fans or ownership. My only prediction will be that the 2009 season will be a critical factor in determining if Tony will stay on board... or if the front office will let him.
Haedar ( Redbird Ramblings): I love tlr, but I think I can only stand one more year of his antics. so, hopefully, tlr and duncan have only one year left. sure, these guys have brought the cardinals great success but their way does not seem to be very feasible anymore.
I really like jose oquendo, the secret weapon. I think he would be a good manager; he better at least be given a shot (a serious thought and interview). I'v always had mike matheny in the back of my head as a guy that would make a great coach; pitching coach would be perfect for him.
Josh (That's A Winner): I think guessing at whether or not they will return is pointless, because a lot will depend on next year. Having said that I would guess yes, they will return. When they do go, Jose Oquendo is my pick. He has been groomed for years now.
What do you guys think about Mike Matheny as a pitching coach? Another catcher, like Duncan, who I think would be excellent.
Nick (Pitchers Hit Eighth) Duncan’s one-year deal actually includes a mutual option for 2010 as well. I have to believe that Dunc and Tony have chats about this all the time, so I wouldn’t rule them out beyond 2009 just yet. I think if they’re winning, Tony can maintain a workable relationship with Mozeliak, and he likes the direction they continue to go, Tony will stick around. Clearly it would seem as if he can stay as long as he likes.
As for eventual replacements? I think Oquendo would have to be candidate number one, the organization has been grooming him for that spot for a long time. I just wonder, depending on how long Tony stays, if Oquendo won’t have found a manager’s job elsewhere by then.
Another candidate I would throw out there is Pop Warner, from the Springfield club. I think the organization likes what he brings to the table, and he’s been around the organization for a while. He’s still relatively young, and probably needs more managerial experience before taking over the big league team though.
Outside of Jose or Pop, if neither of them were “the guy,” I think you could see another high profile hiring outside of the organization, similar to when LaRussa was first brought in. Would Joe Torre eventually come back here if he and/or the Dodgers decided they should part ways? Joe Girardi, once he’s run out of the Bronx? Maybe they could convince Whitey to come out of retirement for a few years...
Daniel Solzman (Redbirds Fun): My belief is that they will return but when they don't want to return, Jose [Oquendo] will be the replacement.
Trey (Cardinal Virtue): I have to say that I'd really like the idea of hiring Oquendo for a long term solution. There is a great bit that was done on him by the ESPN classic show "cheap seats" in which they are trying to get him on the hall of fame ballot. If you have not seen it, you might try and youtube it. I think they end-up getting the utility closet at the hall of game named after him. I'd be surprised, however, if TRL and Duncan go only one more season. This is a relatively young team, with good talent in the minors as well, and I think it has a chance to be good for the next 5-6 years and that they will want to be a part of that. That being said, if they were to leave after 2009, I'd also be surprised if Oquendo or another inexperienced manager was choice. The Cardinals have not hired someone of that type in quite some time (discounting Jorgenson interim reign after Torre was fired). I think Girardi would be a great fit if he is available, as he did well with a young Marlins team not too different from our own. The most likely candidate, however, I think is Bobby Valentine. Like Girardi, he has a history of doing well with young teams, only his history is more extensive. He is also more likely to be available in the time frame we are talking about. He is currently managing in Japan and unless he gets hired by another MLB team this off-season, should be available to us in the advent of TRL leaving.
Mike (Stan Musial's Stance): Valentine's an interesting candidate, but I don't think Valentine is
interested in leaving Japan. There have been several articles about him (including a feature in SI about a year ago) detailing how much of a celebrity he is there and how much he enjoys managing in Japan.
Given the Cardinals' turning over the roster, and the youth movement in progress, and TLR's propensity to lean on his veterans over the young guys, I'd say the odds of him staying beyond 2009 are less than 50%. Of course, I've been proven wrong more times than I care to count...
Matheny would be a great selection [for pitching coach]. He certainly handled the pitching staff well during his time as a Cardinal. When LaRussa hangs them up, I certainly hope they pick the best candidate available, vice the splashiest name. LaRussa was, by far if memory serves correctly, the best candidate available after the 1995 season; the fact that he was a successful manager and came with some notoriety was a bonus, since it re-energized the fan base. We all remember how lousy the Cardinals were post-Whitey. I don't believe we need the same kind of buzz from hiring a 'name' this time around.
Tom (Cardinals GM): Yes, one more season, All signs are pointing to that with the latest contract from Duncan. Tony is ready and quite frankly alot of the fans are ready for him to walk away. I think he would love to be a GM somewhere before he hangs it up.
Who would ill it? Hmmmm, not looking for a re-tread person. We need someone that can connect with the younger players for awhile. I think maybe a former player that has shown a propensity for hard nosed playing. Probably Terry Pendleton.
Daniel Shoptaw (C70 At The Bat): There's no doubt that the front office will let Tony stay as long as they want, assuming that DeWitt still owns the Cardinals. Ownership seems to think TLR hung the moon and basically always have a job here for him if he wants it.
I do think, though, that after 2009 he and Duncan will probably call it quits. He's talked about going back to California and enjoying his family, something he's never really been able to do. I mean, he's managed since 1978 (1979 in the bigs). He was 34 at the time. He's spent his entire life in baseball and there has to come a time where you burn out or really want to call it a day.
The tension that, I believe, will only increase during the seasons to come will play into that. We've seen it this year with him calling for an impact bat and the front office holding on to prospects. I know Tony says all he wants to do is win, but it's got to chafe him a bit when his recommendations aren't followed, especially by a young GM that he's not had the relationship with that he did with Jocketty.
Replacements? I saw someone mention Joe Maddon once, noting that he grew up a Cards fan. I don't know that he'd want to move away from the Rays (or that the Cards would pay whatever compensation that it would require) but obviously he'd be able to deal with a youngish roster. Oquendo's been on the front burner for most people since, what, '04? It wouldn't bother me too much, though I do tend to think there's a trap in hiring a popular name from the past. Because at some point, you are going to have to let that popular name go. Or you hang on to him longer than you should because of his history with the club.
Matheny as pitching coach has merit, though he's never done any of that in the past (save in his catcher role). Duncan got some experience in the minors, didn't he?
Honestly, I'm not sure the pitching coach will make that much difference. Besides super-coaches like Duncan and Mazzone (with Mike Maddux coming into that realm, I think), they are fairly interchangable and won't stay all that long. (Of course, if either Maddux wanted a job, I think they'd be welcome.)
Bryan ( Rockin’ the Red ): I think the future of Tony's tenure with the Cardinals depends a lot on what they do this off-season and next year. I don't think Tony will tolerate many more seasons of .500 ball, and neither will the fans or ownership. My only prediction will be that the 2009 season will be a critical factor in determining if Tony will stay on board... or if the front office will let him.
Deaner (Cardinal Nation Globe): I do think this will be it for TLR and Duncan. It think that Oquendo will defintely be the favorite to be Tony's replacement. I like the idea posed about Mike Matheny as a pitching coach, I just don't know how much of a serious look that he would get. I know that Duncan was a catcher... and has proven, over all the years with Tony, that he is one of the best in the game. I just don't know, however, how much of a chance a former catcher has in getting a major league pitching coach position now... without years of proven experience.
Pip (Fungoes): It's hard to believe that La Russa would retire (permanently, anyway) after next season. He still appears to "enjoy" (in that unique TLR way) managing and its challenge. I'm only half-kidding when I say that perhaps the Cardinals would work out some one-year deal for Oquendo in 2010, then hand it back to TLR for 2011 for the final year of Pujols's contract.
I love the idea of eventually hiring Maddon away from the Rays, who already picked up their 2009 option on him. He may not want to leave the Rays, but he could make a lot more money with the Cardinals (<$1 mil to closer to TLR's $4 mil). Indeed, in a recent interview, he said "When Hrabosky was pitching for the Cardinals, I was a big Cardinal fan." I like the idea of Matheny as pitching coach, too.
Aaron Schafer (Riverfront Times): Sorry I'm so late to the party on this one.
I think 09 will probably be the last hurrah for TLR and Duncan. I actually think next years team has a chance to be very good, if a couple of things fall into place. I think we see a great pennant chase, capped by a heartbreaking loss in the playoffs, followed by an exhausted La Russa finally deciding he can't take anymore of the stress and the grind, hanging it up.
As for successors, I'll join the chorus hoping that Oquendo gets a crack at it. As for pitching coach, hey, Greg Maddux should be retiring sometime pretty soon, don't you think?
Eric (BertFlex): Not to sound like an ungrateful whippersnapper, but I kind of hope this is the last season of the LaRussa-Duncan regime. I don't know how well suited they are (philosophically or temperamentally) to our ostensible youth movement.
I also won't miss their slavish dedication to the closer paradigm that they helped create, or their seeming preference for handedness instead of ability in terms of late-inning matchups.
With that said, their time in the StL has been extremely successful, and I would gladly buy either of them a beer.
But Tony likes Styx. And that's just unforgivable.
Don (The Redbird Blog): I kind of like Styx.
0 comments:
Post a Comment