UCB Project: Top 7 Cardinals Prospects...

For those of you who have followed this blog for awhile, you know we're part of a group called the United Cardinal Bloggers (UCB). At the request of St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist and blogger Derrick Goold, each of the UCB blog sites will be posting, on Monday, September 8, their own individual rankings and analysis of their top 7 Cardinal minor league prospects. On Monday, you can get links to all of the individual UCB rankings by going over to UCB site "C70 At The Bat."

One quick "Editor's Note": I am not including Chris Perez in this ranking because it appears he has locked up a spot in the Cardinals bullpen for 2009. I have included Jason Motte, because he was a September call-up. But, without further ado, here is my ranking and analysis of my "Top 7" Cardinals prospects:

1) Colby Rasmus. Earlier this week, in a live chat posted over at stltoday.com, Post-Dispatch writer Joe Strauss suggested that Colby Rasmus is no longer considered "untouchable" by Cardinals' brass and could be shopped around the league this offseason. This doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, especially given the fact that just over a month ago the Cardinals were contending for the playoffs and the Cardinals refused to discuss Rasmus in several moves that could have positioned the team for a strong post-season run. Nevertheless, trade rumors aside, I have to rank Rasmus as the top prospect in the Cardinals' farm system.

To say this season has been a disappointment for Rasmus would be an understatement. Somehow, in the last six months, Colby went from a "can't miss" star and pre-season contender for a starting OF spot with the Big Club, to an apparently disenchanted and underperforming "prospect" who is rumored to be trade bait. Rasmus was injured for a big chunk of this season, but nevertherless he managed a batting overage just over .250, and was not able to get his OPS over .800.

All of that being said, virtually every rationale observer of Colby Rasmus can see that he has all of the tools. He can hit for average, hit for power, throw, run and play stellar defense. And his offensive numbers in 2008 are actually pretty respectable when you consider how poorly he started the season. Consider these numbers posted prior to Rasmus' knee injury in July:

April: 126 plate appearances, .210 AVG, .306 OBP, .371 SLG (.677 OPS)

May: 119 plate appearances, .218 AVG, .314 OBP, .317 SLG (.631 OPS)

June: 118 plate appearances, .333 AVG, .441 AVG, .535 SLG (.976 OPS)

We often hear that a good comparable for Rasmus is Cleveland star Grady Sizemore. If Rasmus is anything close to what Sizemore is, he'd certainly be a tremendous asset to the St. Louis Cardinals. He projects as a leadoff or #2 hitter ahead of Pujols, and could be an absolute spark for this team's offense (not to mention a reliable presence in CF).

2) Brett Wallace. I know, I know. Wallace was just drafted this year and has only been a pro player for a couple of months. But take a look at his numbers thus far:

Quad Cities (A): 41 Games, .327 AVG, 5 HR, 25 RBI, .418 OBP, .490 SLG (.908 OPS)

Springfield (AA): 13 Games, .337 AVG., 3 HR, 11 RBI, .456 OBP., .653 SLG (1.109 OPS)

The big question with Wallace is related to his defense. We hear scouts speculate as to whether he can handle third base at the mjor league level. Some insist that he's really a first baseman or a DH. But his offensive capabilities are clear. Given the presence of David Freese at third base in Memphis, and the presence of Glaus in St. Louis, it appears likely that Wallace will start 2009 in Springfield. But if either Glaus or Freese are moved this offseason, look for Wallace at AAA Memphis (and potentially in St. Louis by September '09). He's rocketing through this system.

3) Jess Todd. Todd split his 2008 season between three stops in the Cardinals' system: Palm Beach, Springfield and Memphis. And all he did was impress. His overall numbers for 2008: 153 IP, 2.88 ERA, .213 OPP BA, 136 K, 42 BB. I expect Todd will start '09 at Memphis, but could be a dark horse for a spot in the Cardinal rotation. I expect he'll be a fixture in the St. Louis rotation by 2010. The righty features a fastball in the low to mid-90s, as well as a very good slider.


4) Jason Motte. I suggested back in May that, despite the fact that Chris Perez garners attention as the "closer of the future" for STL, Motte may be better. And nothing I've seen this season has changed my mind. I concur with all of those folks who say that Motte needs to develop a more consistent second pitch, but I love his bulldog mentality and the sheer power he brings from the mound. I understand that Perez is no soft tosser himself, but Motte just has that presence that you like to see from a closer. At the very least, I expect him to be a late inning stalwart in St. Louis in 2009. You can bet that he'll be mentioned in many a trade discussion as well.

5) Brian Anderson. I struggled with this pick. I know Anderson has proven to be a consistent offensive player at a premium position (catcher), but I don't think he's a ctually a "Cardinals Prospect." Yadier Molina isn't going anywhere in the near future, and Anderson has too much value to be a back-up for a young Molina. However, Anderson's value and ability compels his inclusion on this list, though I fully expect him to be with another club at some point in 2009.


6) Daryl Jones. Jones had an awful '07 season (.600 OPS in 127 games), but rebounded in 2008. In stos at Palm Beach and AA Springfield, Jones posted a combined .316 AVG, 13 HR, 49 RBI, .407 OBP, .483 SLG (.890 OPS) and 24 SBs. Jones is a strong defensive outfielder who projects to be a 20/20-type outfielder at the mjor league level. Eventually one can evision a Cardinals' outfield of Rasmus, Ankiel/Ludwick and Jones (assuming you don't see a shift of Brett Wallace to the outfield).


7) Lance Lynn. Another 2008 draft pick, Lynn has impressed. The big righty (6'5, 250 lbs.) was drafted out of Ole Miss, and then assigned to Batavia and promoted to Quad Cities. Admittedly the sample size is small, but in eight games (26+ innings pitched), Lynn was dominant. He posted an ERA of 0.92, struck out 29 batters and walked just six. Reports are that he's a durable pitcher with excellent command of ther strike zone. He throws a good sinking fastball (low 90s) with a decent curveball and change-up.

Honorable mention: Clayton Mortensen. I toyed with putting him at #7 instead of Lynn, but Mortensen struggled late in the year, and I have concerns about his mound presence. At times he's dominant, and at others he seems to just lose concentration and compsure. 2009 will be a BIG year for Mort.

************************************************************************************

Chris Carpenter to be the closer? Believe it. Says LaRussa:

"I'm looking forward to giving [the closer job] to Carp," La Russa said Sunday, echoing remarks from the previous day. "We'd have some fun."

This move makes sense to me. If Carp isn't ready to start games for this team, and will be pitching out of the bullpen anyway, why not the 9th inning?

************************************************************************************

And speaking of the closer position, the Boston Globe speculates that the Cardinals are a front runner for Francisco Rodriguez' services in 2009. From Nick Cafardo of the Globe:

While the Tigers are an early front-runner for Francisco Rodriguez's services, don't rule out the Cardinals. They will likely fall short of a playoff berth because of their bullpen. Through Friday, they had 30 blown saves and 30 bullpen losses, both worst in the league. They've lost 12 games on walkoff hits, 21 losses have come in the opponent's last at-bat, and 14 losses came after they led through seven innings. While Dave Duncan is a tremendous pitching coach, he is not a magician.

I don't see this happening, frankly. The Cardinals won't give K-Rod the $ or the years he'll be seeking in free agency, especially with the emergence of Perez and Motte. I believe the Cards are for more likely to seek a closer who can be serviceable for a year or two until Perez or Motte steps up. Also, with news that Billy Wagner is having Tommy John surgery, look for the Mets to be players in the K-Rod sweepstakes.