Projecting the 2008 Lineup...August 2008, That Is.

The United Cardinal Bloggers (UCB) have organized a series of "round table" discussions focusing on issues facing the '08 Cardinals. Each day, the bloggers will discuss/debate a different issue. Monday's discussion was centered on Anthony Reyes, and was posted at Redbird Ramblings yesterday. Yesterday's discussion amongst the bloggers focused on the overall 2008 roster, and is posted below.

The sites participating in this series of round tables:

C70 At The Bat
Stan Musial's Stance
Redbird Ramblings
The Redbird Blog

Without further ado--here is the discussion:

QUESTION: We all have a pretty good feel for what the Cards roster will look like in April. What's your prediction for the roster on August 1?

Mike (Stan Musial's Stance): Depends on the team's record. If they're hovering around .500, then probably the same starters, with Ludwick having taken over for Duncan in LF. If they're mired in the NL Central basement, then I think Ryan will take over for Izturis at SS (especially if Izturis is a bust at the plate), and Ludwick still takes over in LF. Duncan is on the team still, but as Pujols' back-up. Pitchers: Wainwright, Looper, Lohse, Piniero, Carpenter. Mulder never makes it back. Neither does Clement. Bullpen essentially the same; the only trade chip I see down there is Franklin, but I don't think the club will move him this season.

Daniel (C70 At The Bat): Wow, you want me to project into August? I've got enough trouble seeing to Opening Day!

Let's look at the starters. I honestly think that Pujols probably has the surgery around the All-Star Break, assuming that there's no miracle run and the Cards are really in contention. That means Duncan is starting at first. Kennedy will probably still be at second. I think Ryan will be at short--even Tony will have to give up on Izturis eventually. Glaus at third and Molina behind the plate.

Outfield will have Rasmus, Ankiel and Ludwick on most days, with Barton in the mix as well.

Pitching staff will be Wainwright, Clement, Pineiro, Lohse and Reyes, I think. Carpenter will come back soon after the beginning of August, however.

Don (Redbird Blog): So, Daniel, what happens to Mulder?

Mike (Stan Musial's Stance): Daniel, what about Clement? Ready later in the year or a lost cause for all of 2008?

Daniel (C70 At The Bat): Mulder. Um, yeah. Good point there. Should have known I was forgetting something.

I still don't think Reyes gets traded, let me first say that. You'd probably figure one of Clement or Pineiro would wind up hurt, leaving a spot for Mulder. If they are all healthy, it's an interesting dilemma. I'd guess the best of the three (Clement, Pineiro, Mulder) would get traded to a contender. Pulling a name out of the hat, I'll say Clement. If he's healthy, he's got a stronger history than the others, something a contending team would like to bite on.

Mike (Stan Musial's Stance): I don't see Clement as possible trade bait. He hasn't pitched at the ML level in almost 2 years. I'm glad to hear his setback was strength-related, vs. another injury to his shoulder; but after he re-gains the strength in his right arm, I think he'd have to come back really, REALLY good in order for a contender to consider trading for him. Too much injury history there now.

Besides, a rotation with Carpenter, Wainwright, and Clement at the top for the 2009 season is really attractive to me. Reyes is the enigma. Reyes is the guy that some folks think would benefit from a change of scenery. I think he'd be the more attractive trade option. And I say that even though I hope he stays put in St. Louis.

Don (Redbird Blog): I'm going to assume that Pujols toughs it out and avoids surgery for another year. I see one or both of Schumaker and Duncan gone before the end of the year (via trade or otherwise). Your outfield consists of Ankiel, Rasmus and Ludwick/Barton. Your infield is Miles, Pujols, Glaus, Kennedy. Izturis will have been replaced by Mather (Don said, optimistically). Your starting rotation on August 1 is Wainwright, Lohse, Pineiro, Wellemeyer and Mulder. I'm not sure we don't see Looper return to the bullpen. I can also see Looper and/or Clement leave via trade sometime later in the year. Bullpen looks similar to April, with the exception that I can see Chris Perez coming up to take a 7th or 8th inning role if someone falters.

Haedar (Redbird Ramblings): Pujols will be out by the All-Star break because of his elbow, so Duncan will take over at first (like Daniel said). An alternative would be to keep Duncan in left and bring up Phelps to play first or maybe even Mather to see what he can do in the big leagues.

Looper will not be so good as a starter and go back to the bullpen. Wellemeyer will do the same; he is a long reliever at best and not a starter and he got really lucky last season when they put up about 8 runs every game he started. Reyes will be in the rotation because he will finally be good enough to stick as one of the five best starting pitchers the Cards have. Clement might not pitch this season; just a hunch. Piniero was paid too much money and he will end up to the the 5th starter. Rotation will probably be: Wainwright, Lohse, Reyes, Piniero, Mulder. Oh yeah, Mulder comes back and pitches to the tune of a 5.00 era or so and the Cardinals are happy with it.

QUESTION: Will Chris Duncan and/or Anthony Reyes be Cardinals on September 1? If so/If not, why?

Mike (Stan Musial's Stance): Reyes goes 8-6 with a 4.50 ERA and is traded at the deadline to an AL team for a 2B prospect and cash.I looked at the MLB.com depth chart - both listed back-ups for [Pujols] are now in minor league camp (or optioned outright to Memphis, as in the case of Mather). I for one will miss Reyes when he leaves.

Daniel (C70 At The Bat): Both will be on the staff. Duncan will be because he'll fill in for Pujols, Reyes because he'll be effective enough to keep around.

If Reyes is successful, he's too attractive to trade, especially with the general focus on payroll. He'd be a cheap, reliable starter and those don't grow on trees. If he's not successful, he might get moved, but will we get anything for him? We'd be selling pretty low.

I think if Clement actually pitched from May to July with an ERA in the mid-3s and a good K/BB ratio, if there is a need for a contending team, they'd take him. They are focused on the right now, not the long term. Any deadline trade is a gamble and that'd be one as well. I'm not saying we'd get two top prospects for him, but he could be moved.

Not that I'm advocating that. You are right, having Carp/Wainwright/Clement in the rotation, plus hopefully a top-notch free agent pitcher, would do wonders for 2009. I'm just saying that I think teams would be more interested in him than maybe anyone else. Though if Mulder did the same time of thing (strong May-July), he could draw some interest as well.

Imagine if Mulder is back to something approximating his Oakland days, though..........

Don (Redbird Blog): I do see Reyes being traded this year (probably as part of a larger package deal), unless he somehow strings together a great run of performances early in the year. I just don't even know if he'll get the chance to do so. Once Pineiro and/or Clement come back, I think he's the odd man out.

So, Mike and Daniel, if I am following you correctly, you both believe Duncan will still be with the Cards when Rasmus eventually gets to St. Louis. One of you believes Schumaker will be released, the other believes Ludwick takes over Duncan's spot and Duncan goes to the bench.

Neither of you see Duncan as a trade target for AL teams in '08?

Daniel (C70 At The Bat): I'd love to say yes on that. I've said before that I think Duncan has a pretty small window of being an effective major leaguer. The Cardinals would be wise to get something for him while they can.

But, depending on what they think of Josh Phelps and Joe Mather, Duncan is the biggest insurance policy on Pujols's elbow. Moving him to first and then getting Rasmus in the lineup in the outfield could help the team absorb the loss of El Hombre.

If the team thinks that Mather is for real, though, I could see them talk trade with Duncan. Of course, he's going to have to hit better than his .039 or whatever it is now to get anything for him. But if he starts off hot and Mather does as well down in Memphis, I think Mozeliak should talk to other teams about him. I just don't think he will.

Though if there's a move that would set the tone for who runs the team, the dugout or the front office, that'd probably be it.

Mike (Stan Musial's Stance): Currently I don't, because there isn't anyone else projected to make the opening day roster that can spell Pujols at first; to protect his elbow, he's going to need more days off this season than in previous years.

Now, if the team decides to promote Phelps or Mather to the big club, that might change; but if I read the tea leaves correctly, they think Mather needs more seasoning (despite his strong spring), and by re-assigning Phelps to minor league camp last week they think he needs more work.

Daniel (C70 At The Bat): I will say, I was surprised at how quickly they sent down Phelps. I really thought he might have a chance to make the team as a Pujols caddy. Then again, if we didn't have to carry so many middle infield types, maybe he would have.

Don (Redbird Blog): A couple of you have mentioned the issue of a back-up for Pujols. The candidates appear to be Duncan, Mather and Phelps. While I'm trying to be optimistic and I believe Pujols will manage his injury during '08, I acknowledge he'll probably play 145 games at most. Between days he takes off and scheduled days off for the team, that'll give Pujols 1+ day off every week of the season.

So, taking my assumption that Pujols does not spend significant time on the DL in '08, would it make sense to promote Mather just to have him spend most of his time riding pine and pinch hitting? To me, if you need a spot starter and occasional pinch hitter, considering the current glut of outfielders, Duncan is your guy. I suppose you might give Phelps a look if you feel like you need a right-handed option at that position.

Of course, my analysis changes if Pujols has to spend a month or more on the DL. Thoughts?

Daniel (C70 At The Bat): I agree that Mather needs regular at-bats, just like Rasmus does. So if AP stays healthy, Mather stays down, most likely.

But I still hold to the idea that if the Cardinals are 10 or so games out close to July 1, Pujols will go ahead and have the surgery so that he'll be healthy for next year. In that case, you'll need a replacement for the second half of the season.

But for day-to-day backups, you are right, Don, Duncan is your man. And it gets him out of the outfield, where we can all agree he's not that strong.

Mike (Stan Musial's Stance): I agree with Daniel, although it seemed from some of Pujols' sound bites he wasn't interested in having surgery at all. If Duncan is tapped to be AP's back-up, why did they sign Phelps? I wonder if they thought they could move Duncan this spring if he and Phelps hit reasonably well?

Daniel (C70 At The Bat): I don't think he'll be interested in the surgery, but I think this would be a time where the front office would have to step up and say, look, you can't help us this year. You can next year. Have the surgery.

As for signing Phelps, I'm not sure. Possibly to give them flexibility to trade Duncan. Possibly a hedge against Duncan having a terrible year. Possibly because Mo's always had a soft spot for him since he drafted him a couple of years ago on a fantasy team.

Haedar (Redbird Ramblings): I don't know. maybe Duncan will end up on the DL also. You have to consider what he has done this spring (basically nothing; 1 for 26 I think) and his health status. I don't think he is completely healthy. he might spend a good chunk of the season on the DL. That's were Phelps fits in; if both Pujols and Duncan end up on the DL.

Daniel (C70 At The Bat): Good possibility. Though Duncan has had his back issues, I'm not sure they are planning on putting him on the DL at the moment. But if he doesn't improve at the bat, he'll be there before the end of April, which probably gets Phelps the call up.

Mike (Stan Musial's Stance): That's fair; but Duncan was hurting before they sent Phelps down, and they sent him down anyway.

Is there anyone else on the roster who can play first? I'd volunteer myself, at the league minimum, but (a) I don't think the USN would approve, and (b) LaRussa'd get tired of watching me foul out to third after a while.

Daniel (C70 At The Bat): They did, but I have trouble believing that, if Duncan goes down in the first week or so, they'd go with Mather instead of the proven commodity (Phelps). If Mather had a good month or two before they needed him, that'd be a different story.

QUESTION: When does Colby Rasmus come to the big club, and who goes to the bench when he gets to St. Louis?

Mike (Stan Musial's Stance): Rasmus won't come up until September 1, unless (a) Ankiel, Schumaker, or Ludwick gets hurt, or (b) he's TEARING the cover off the ball at Memphis.

Daniel (C70 At The Bat): Rasmus comes up early June and Schumaker is given his release.

Haedar (Redbird Ramblings): Colby will definitely be up by September 1st when rosters expand; I don't know if they will do it before because you already have so many outfielders. I guess it depends if anyone tanks or gets injured.

Don (Redbird Blog): I believe he'll be in St. Louis before the end of June. Probably swapping with Barton between the leadoff spot and the #2 spot in the lineup.

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On the field, you can find today's Grapefruit League starting lineup from Derrick Goold. Brad Thompson is the starting pitcher this afternoon, and you get a glimpse of what could be an "everyday lineup" (at least as much as such a thing exists in the world of LaRussa):

1. Skip Schumaker, LF
2. Brian Barton, DH
3. Albert Pujols, 1B
4. Troy Glaus, 3B
5. Rick Ankiel, CF
6. Ryan Ludwick, RF
7. Yadier Molina, C
8. Adam Kennedy, 2B
9. Cesar Izturis, SS

Obviously a DH is being used today, so four of the OF contenders are batting.
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Joe Strauss has a look at some remaining questions for the '08 Cards. Included is this tem:

MOST POSITIVE NEWS OF CAMP?

The Cardinals left camp last spring unable to identify a No. 6 starter and frustrated by a lack of organizational pitching depth.

Emerging arms McClellan, Perez, Jason Motte, Jaime Garcia, Clayton Mortensen, Mike Parisi, Mitchell Boggs and Adam Ottavino exhibited solid tools.

McClellan, Perez, Motte, Parisi and Boggs extend immediate hope to a recently bleak situation at Class AAA Memphis.

Several should be in St. Louis this summer.