Monday, May 18, 2009

Adios Mi Amigos...

Well it has been a fun ride, but all good things must come to an end. I started up this little blog about two years ago, not fully understanding what I was getting myself into. Before I knew it, I had readers from across the globe. A real example of the vastness of Cardinal Nation.

In any case, I just haven't had enough time to really write the kind of material that Cardinals' fans deserve, so I'm hanging up my keyboard. There are quite a few outstanding Cardinals blogs out there on the interweb (check the sidebar here for some links or google the United Cardinal Bloggers), so I'm confident my readers will find a new home.

You have all been great, and I've enjoyed the opportunity to offer you my thoughts and perspectives. Be well, and GO CARDS!!

Don

WHO’S ON THIRD? (PART 3)

Things have taken a turn for the worse at the hot corner. I wrote on the dilemma at third base twice before, when a lot of people were more concerned about what was going on at second base with Skip Schumaker. First, it looked as though Joe Mather was the go-to guy until Troy Glaus was able to come back around the first of May. Mather even led the Grapefruit League in RBI briefly. Then, Mather came down with a viral infection or flu, and that sapped his strength and his chance at winning the third base job outright. Mather never looked quite the same, went into a slump the rest of the Spring and ended up in Memphis before the regular season started.

Then the Cardinal brass looked at David Freese, who seemed to be getting over his Achilles heel injury from a January car accident. The accident had slowed down his prospects for winning the third base job earlier in the Spring. Yet, when the season started, Joe Thurston was the Opening Day starter, and the next day too. Freese got finally a start later in the week, but choices had been made that left David Freese the odd man out, and as soon as the schedule and injuries dictated an extra pitcher, Freese was sent down to AAA Memphis to get more at-bats instead of being a bench player with one position.


Meanwhile, Joe Mather went into an evenworse slump in Memphis, and onlookers there said that he had lost a good deal of weight and could not drive the ball. Finally, he succumbed to wrist surgery to remove a cyst. This was the same wrist that Joe injured late last summer that ended his debut in the Major Leagues. Recovery from cyst surgery is about 3-5 days, yet Joe has been out two weeks now. It appears that Joe needs to get completely healthy from the viral infection and the troublesome wrist before he can effectively play again.

David Freese went down to Memphis, but could not get much going much either with his bat, and now he has been placed on the Memphis disabled list. Freese continues to experience residual soreness from his Achilles heel related to his car accident that limited his playing time early in spring training. I had written about this earlier, as Achilles heel injuries are difficult to come back from in any abbreviated manner.

The twin tandem of Joe Thurston and Brian Barden has seemed to peak. Both are getting “overexposed,” as one scout stated. Barden started very hot, hitting .385 in April, but has now slumped by going 2-21 and hitting an abysmal .095 so far in May. Thurston finished April at .278, but has also slowed by hitting .195 in May. Both are piling up more than a few strikeouts, about a K in every six at bats. Thus, Cardinal production at third since the start of May is a .161 batting average and a horrible .167 slugging percentage. It doesn’t take long with injuries to Ludwick and Ankiel, to expose that third base is a sore spot, in what seemed to be a position of depth going into 2009.

With Freese on the disabled list, the Cardinals promoted Bret Wallace to AAA. Bret did real well in Springfield in a brief sample late last year, hitting .367. But this time around, he struggled in comparison, and was hitting .281 when he was called up to Memphis. Not real impressive... though he did put up a .840 OPS. But the Cardinals seem to have little choice. The injury to Troy Glaus has not responded well to surgery and treatment and he has stopped all baseball activities and now is not scheduled to see a doctor until next month. This kind of looks like Glaus, even optimistically, will not return until after the All-Star break. His season could be written off completely if he is not back by then. Mather and Freese are out for perhaps an indefinite time period. Thurston and Barden are not treading water anymore... hence the urgency to force Bret Wallace to rise to the challenge.

Wallace has improved defensively, a factor that Tony LaRussa found issue with this past spring. In 30 games at third base in Springfield, Bret has made only two errors, had a .975 fielding percentage and a range factor per game of 2.63. Although, this is not a lot to go on, it is not bad and an improvement over last season. Bret moves well charging in on the ball, but seems inflexible physically moving side to side. But despite his build, he is more athletic than initially thought. He has a good throwing arm, but will need an above average shortstop, in range, arm, and glove to play alongside of him. This increasingly looks a lot less like Khalil Greene to be his partner on the left side if Bret gets the call to MLB (Khalil is another subject though).

Bret may turn things around in Memphis. For one thing, he will get more pitches to hit, instead of borderline offerings. Wallace has apparently been frustrated with AA pitching this time around. Bret needs to learn to be more patient, and more selective at the plate instead of trying to drive marginal pitches, and take a walk, like Colby Rasmus before him. In Bret’s first start in Memphis, he went 3-4. Maybe Bret can respond to the challenge and resemble the phenom of last year. Let’s hope so, as the opportunity is now there for Bret more than it ever has been. Chone or Oliver projected Bret to be major league ready, hitting wise, before the season. They projected him to be a .299 hitter in 479 AB’s with 20 HR and 86 RBI, with a .489 SLG. ZIPS projected Bret to be a .275 hitter with 16 HR, 69 RBI with a .424 SLG. The Cardinals will gladly take either production now, as Wallace projects to be the “impact” bat sooner or later behind Albert Pujols. It may be much sooner, if Wallace can gain traction in Memphis, and then he may be up anyway as the Cards need something...pending a trade stopgap and revisiting a Joe Inglett deal.

We’ll see... the month of May is getting more interesting.

--Allan

Monday, May 11, 2009

CALL-UPS & PROMOTIONS...

The Cardinals are off to their best start since the 1982 season, despite using a Major League-high 10 rookies so far, because of some key veterans being injured. They have already called up in loose order : Chris Perez, Phil Walters, Mitchell Boggs, Tyler Greene and Shane Robinson. They started the season with six rookies on the roster. There are seven rookies on the team now. Who else can we expect the Cardinals to take a look at and possibly call up due to their minor league performances to date and/or promote from AA Springfield to AAA Memphis or Low A to High A ball ?

As of now, the Cardinals have already tapped into Memphis pretty well. With the acquisition of Blaine Boyer, they appear to have shored up their bullpen, along with defining roles for Jason Motte and Chris Perez, in which they seem to be having reasonable success with for the time being. But depending on the needs in the future, two prospects are standing out in Memphis: Jess Todd and Clay Mortensen.

Todd is 2-0 with six saves in Memphis, and in over 15 innings, has posted a 1.17 ERA, with 18 K’s and only 4 walks. Mortensen has posted a 1.44 ERA over 31 innings with a 2-1 record in five starts. The Cards’ front office has their own formula for configuring minor league performance into major league equivalency... but using the Baseball Prospectus, I came up with the following:

In roughly the same sample size, Jess Todd would have 12 K’s, 4 BB’s, and a 1.84 ERA projected with the major league club... and Mortensen would be posting a 3.45 ERA on the MLB level. These guys need, of course, major league experience. But if both Todd and Mortensen keep up these performances they will be in St. Louis next season, if not sooner. After viewing Sunday’s game, the Cardinals could use a consistent starter, as I am getting worried about Wainwright’s performances. The Cards could also use a lock-down eighth inning guy...to set up Ryan Franklin in the ninth, which they lack...The Mets set a precedent for that by signing a closer, J.J. Putz, to be a top-notch set-up man. You can bet in this age of specialty that this is not going unnoticed. Todd has put up figures so far that Perez nor Motte matched when they were in Memphis, so Todd could be something that the Cardinals are looking for. Both Mortensen and Todd though would both have to put on the 40-man roster with one spot open pending a change there.

In AA Springfield, Bret Wallace is not tearing things up yet, but Steve Hill, Dan Descalso and Daryl Jones are doing well enough for a promotion to Memphis. Using a Minor League Equivalency calculator, Descalso would be hitting .328, Jones .291, and Hill, .288 at Memphis. Hill would be leading the Memphis team in homeruns. All three of these guys would be among the leaders on the Memphis team in several categories of offensive production. Daryl Jones is going to break out sooner or later to be a viable power threat. When he does, he may surpass all the others as "the prospect." Jones is a multi-tool player. Meanwhile, catcher Charles Cutler, closer Casey Mulligan, and starter Kevin Thomas, all at Quad Cities, are all doing well enough to be promoted to High A Palm Beach, or even Springfield.

The 2009 Cardinals may be playing over expectations, but the rookies are getting valuable experience. The emphasis, so far, in relying on them will be an impetus for others in AAA and AA ball to step up their game to be considered later. At least, we get to see what the talent pipeline looks like and see if the new philosophy of the front office and our own version of Bill James, Jeff Luhnow, has credibility and creates more interest. It may be a risk for some, but it is more exciting for me to watch the current Cardinal team than to be a Cub or Astro fan and watch their teams decline due to increasing age and injuries... as is already the case.

- Allan Spickard

Thursday, May 7, 2009

ManRam and ShaRob....

A couple of quick tidbits for your Thursday pre-game delight:

1) Manny Ramirez has reportedly tested positive for a banned substance and has been suspended for fifty (50) games! This gets an unqualified "holy shit" from your blogger.

2) In less surprising news, Rick Ankiel is headed to the DL and will be replaced by minor league outfielder Shane Robinson.

The Ramirez loss is huge for the Dodgers. And now you know what you'll be listening to on sports talk radio for the next week.

DD

Monday, May 4, 2009

Dunc at Work...

I noticed on MLB Gameday the other night, that the velocity on Jason Motte’s fastball was down some. He was off about 2-3 MPH. Then I looked more closely and saw that Jason was throwing, according to Gameday, a two-seam fastball.

Hmm... well, that would account for the difference in velocities. Motte’s four-seamer, which was heretofore his bread and butter pitch, ranges from 96-98 MPH consistently, whereas the two-seamer that he was throwing was running 93-95 MPH. A sinking fastball at 95 MPH though, is a pretty effective pitch in the strike zone, which is why Duncan coveted A.J. Burnett years back. However, in the game I was viewing, he was not getting but about half of them over for strikes,...so this is not a pitch it appears that Motte regularly throws.

My speculation is, that since Motte's four seamer is relatively straight, that Dave Duncan has asked Motte to throw two seamers, as the action on them is to sink. If Motte cannot strike everyone out then he can get them to least hit the ball on the ground and avoid fly balls and line drives which go for extra bases against Motte's four seamer, which has been the case lately,....if the hitter guesses right about pitch selection and relative location...which is not hard to do with a fastball pitcher.

It appears that Motte relied on his velocity a great deal in the minor leagues. His experience level in pitching is fairly limited (being a converted catcher), so throwing his four seamer "right over" the plate likely was his bread and butter. You just can't get away with that in the Major Leagues. Look at Ryan Franklin's fastball this season... it is right on the black most of the time. At 92 MPH, it is a tough pitch because of its location.

If Motte can harness both fastballs and locate them better while still showing the slider, curve or even a changeup, then he is closer material.

Velocity gets people excited... but Whitey Herzog said the secret to pitching was, mainly, "location and movement." This is why Catfish Hunter and Greg Maddux made it to the Hall of Fame... they both threw 83-85 MPH fastballs with pinpoint location and really good movement. Tom Seaver may have had the most "moveable" fastball ever... He could have survived in the Major Leagues with only that.

* * * * * * * * * *

John Mozeliak must have thought that Dave Duncan needed more challenges... so he went and got another project for Duncan: Blaine Boyer. As soon as Boyer arrived, Duncan wanted Blaine to pitch a bullpen instead of getting ready for the game that evening. Obviously, Dunc had some ideas to run by Boyer. Then Duncan asked Boyer for another bullpen the very next day, instead of having him available, again, for a game. That indicated to me that Duncan wanted to see the progress from the day before and see how Boyer was responding to Duncan's mentoring... which was apparently pretty successful, judging on Boyer's results the last couple of nights. Instead of a four-seam 95 MPH fastball, Blaine was thowing a two-seamer too, something that he did not do in Atlanta. And since Boyer has had some trouble with left-handed hitters, he was throwing a cutter that I haven’t seen before. A cut fastball can be tough for left-handed hitters to pick up. Boyer’s curveball looked sharp too, as he had lost confidence in that pitch in Atlanta while probably overrelying on it. I think that Blaine Boyer could be the new Todd Wellemeyer Project down the road, depending on the needs and opportunities.

And then there is Ryan Franklin. What has happened to this guy ? I was down on Ryan because he did not have a consistent out-pitch that other closers do. But he is 7-7 in save chances, tied for second in most saves in the league, and has not given up a run yet. Then I watched on Gameday, and he was throwing, as mentioned above, a 92 MPH fastball on the black AND a 91 MPH cutter where ever he wanted. Well, when you can throw your cutter at the same velocity as your fastball, that is quite an out-pitch. Jason Isringhausen made a living working a cutter off his fastball and nearly saved 300 games. It appears that Duncan has got Ryan Franklin doing the same, yet Franklin has better control than Izzy and is putting pitches in great spots. Not to mention that Ryan possesses more unique facial hair style. I guess you have to have a gimmick to close games...just ask Al Hrabosky.

There has never been a pitching coach voted into the baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. But if that ever happens, Dave Duncan merits to be the first.....in my opinion....

--- Allan